I'm back! Did you miss me over the weekend? Don't answer that. :) I'm back after spending the week end at the Coal Bowl (more on this later), playing catch up in the world of politics and compose a quick blog stroll and open thread.
Booman says It ain't white males who make up the bulk of the progressive movement. No stuff?
2nd UPDATE: The Davis campaign confimed that they did not commission this poll. The AL GOP says they're innocent as well, but can't speak for individual candidates. Waiting to hear on some other inquiries.
Only in Alabama would receiving a merit scholarship to Harvard University be a negative asset in a gubernatorial campaign.
Which Alabama candidate for governor is push polling message testing with a poll that harps on Harvard?
Yes! I got polled last night and what an interesting "poll" it was. First, it didn't come from any sort of political polling polling firm, but from this number - 712-941-2323 - that appears to be a market research firm in Iowa. Second, many of the questions lacked a "neutral" or "don't know" option in the answers allowed, which made me question its legitimacy as an opinion poll.
But the biggest questions are these: "Is someone planning to run against Harvard University instead of Artur Davis?" "If so, is it Ron Sparks or the GOP getting ready for the general?"
I'm not kidding about the Harvard part. There were at least 5 questions, probably more, wanting my opinion of Harvard and its graduates. Then there were the questions of what I think about the Southern Poverty Law Center and ACLU. I kept waiting to be asked if I thought a "pointy headed intellectual" or "outside agitator" could be elected in Alabama.
The woods are lovely, dark and deep, But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep. Robert Frost
Suddenly, the woods are lovely, aren't they? The polls resound with the promise of victiory in less than a month. As we expected, the debating season is just made for the candidates of our choice, as their native intelligence, thoughtfulness, and gravitas is on display for all serious voters to see. And the temptation is there to start the victory party. And yet the election season has this grave message for us :
But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep.
Update - Loren Collingwood - pollster from Washington will be joining us. He's really interesting and has some valuable insight
into the complicated world of polling.
Tomorrow morning we are going to be hosting our first BlogTalkRadio show. We are in the process of lining up pollster Loren Collingwood from the University of Washington. He just posted a great diary on the site this morning.
Of course we will give LIA some props for all of it's hard work.
OK. Those of you who thought this election year would be a blowout, raise your hands? Even with a president with approval ratings below 30%, the base on both sides have gone scurrying to their respective parties. The states that were swing states in 2000 and 2004 look to be the swing states again this year.
There's good news and bad news in this for Obama. First the bad news. He's gone from a large lead to trailing in the popular votes polls. McCain-Palin now hold a 2.3% lead in an average of all the polls. We'll discuss reasons for that move shortly.
If the general election for your Congressman were today, for whom would you vote between: Frequency Percent --------- ------- 1 Bobby Bright, Democrat 238 47.1% 2 Jay Love, Republican 189 37.4% 3 Don't Know / No Reply / Other 78 15.5% Total Qualified
It's always good to poll 10 points better than your opposition and Bobby Bright is closing in on the 50% mark he'll need to cross for a victory in November. This is particularly interesting because the question identified each candidate by party as well as by name, so it doesn't look like 2nd district voters have a problem voting for a Democrat. Another interesting point in this survery was the response to the open-ended question:
What is the one most important thing you would like your next Congressman do for you and District 2?
The top 4 responses were:
Economy/Jobs
Low Gas Prices
Represent People/Listen to Voters
Lower Taxes
Increase drilling" was number 12 and "address health care issues" was number 13 but only 1 person out of the 585 polled said "continue Everett good job," which ranks the retiring incumbent right up there with "impeach Bush" and "new tennis courts." So much for what a big plus Terry Everett's endorsement will be for the Republican candidate. And this poll was taken before Everett called Jack Murtha, the first Vietnam Veteran elected to Congress, an "idiot."
"And don't talk to me about him being an ex-Marine. Lord, that was 40 years ago. A lot of stuff can happen in 40 years. Thank you for your service as being an ex-Marine but that doesn't mean you're (not) an idiot, and he is," Everett said of Murtha.
The share of voters who call themselves Republicans has declined by six points since 2004, and represents, on an annualized basis, the lowest percentage of self-identified Republican voters in 16 years of polling by the Center.
The Democratic Party has also built a substantial edge among independent voters. Of the 37% who claim no party identification, 15% lean Democratic, 10% lean Republican, and 12% have no leaning either way.
Look at the graph (from the Pew report) -- Republican losses are reflected as gains for Independents. Anyone with a shred of independent thought has been jumping off the Republican ship since 2006
With far more Americans identifying themselves as Democrats than Republicans, President Bush’s job rating has hit a new low, according to the latest FOX News poll.
...
This bad news for Bush comes at a time when the gap between those identifying themselves as Democrats and those identifying as Republicans has reached 13 percentage points (43 percent versus 30 percent), which is the largest difference ever measured in a FOX News poll.
Tell me again why anyone would change parties to run as a Republican this year?
There is a new poll out by The Pew Research Center that shows Republican chances next year are about as good as Sal Tessio's in The Godfather.
The poll, which has a low 2.5% MOE due to a sampling size about twice as large as normal, also provides a head-to-head matchup between Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani that shows Hillary winning by 8 points. In electoral politics, 8 points would be a freakin' landslide.
But what is really amazing is that Hillary is beating Rudy among Southern voters by an even large margin than she is nationally -- 52 to 41 versus 51-43 nationally.
A CNN poll released Friday found that a majority of Americans think it is good for the country that Democrats are in control of Congress, see table below. A separate question found that 51% had a favorable opinion of the Democratic party vs. only 38% with a favorable opinion of the Republican party.
Why are Democrats viewed favorably right now? Because they are making some progress in halting the excesses of the past 6 years. For instance, the Democratic Congress has refused to renew Bush's fast track authority to negotiate trade deals. This will prevent more damage to U.S. workers and it would never have happened if the Republicans were still in control of Congress.
Our own Congressional Democrats, Rep. Bud Cramer (D, AL-05) and Rep. Artur Davis (D, AL-07) have been on the right side of important issues more often than not this session. But come on Congressmen, don't give in to special interests on "boutique issues" like polar bear trophy hunting. There can't be more than a few thousand elite trophy hunters in the whole country who care about that one versus millions who think they're cute and worth protecting. Don't waste your political capitol pandering to those guys.
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