In an email to supporters this afternoon, Artur Davis' Strategy Director, John Paul Lupo, shared insights from a April 30-May 2 internal (Hamilton Campaigns) poll of the gubernatorial primary. Highlights:
- Davis leads by double digits in the Birmingham media market, has a 2 to 1 lead in the Montgomery region, and nearly the same 2 to 1 margin in the Mobile area.
- Davis and Sparks are in a statistical dead heat in the Huntsville market, which is Sparks' base.
- Among white voters Davis is literally tied — remember that President Obama lost white Democrats to Hillary Clinton by almost 40 points in Alabama's 2008 Presidential primary.
- Among African American voters, Davis holds a commanding 2 to 1 lead.
- He has a favorable to unfavorable ratio of 58%-20%
- Davis enjoys widespread support across the state and all demographic groups.
- Voters across every single statistically significant demographic group have shown significant movement in Davis' direction since early April.
- The survey included 600 interviews and had a margin of error of +/- 4%.
Lupo speculates that the Sparks campaign is planning a “100% negative campaign in the final three weeks of this race, that's what you do when you are second in a two-man race.” Sparks has in fact been going negative for a couple of months — the campaign's press releases have been overwhelmingly negative about Davis and Sparks' Facebook supporters have even complained that his messages are all about Davis, not about himself.
This information isn't completely satisfying (there are no actual numerical results except for the favorables/unfavorable ratio) but it is a lot more specific than the rumored AEA poll showing the race “tightening up,” with no numerals specified at all. As far as I know, no one has yet produced a survey showing Sparks even a little bit ahead of Davis, while we have seen several showing a lead for Davis over a span of many months.